Bitcoin will likely need to hold above the $110,000 support level to get a chance at retesting its all-time high, according to an analyst, as Bitcoin fell 5% over the weekend.

Bitcoin fell from about $118,330 on Friday, dropping to $112,300 on Sunday, a bearish start to a historically bad month for Bitcoin.

“A lot will depend on how risk sentiment holds together after Friday’s dire [US] jobs report and new tariff developments,” IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph on Monday as Bitcoin reclaimed $114,800.

He said the pullback from the all-time high over the weekend tested and held the support coming from the former record high of $112,000, “which was also the logical pullback target.”

“If risk sentiment stabilizes and Bitcoin remains above the $112,000/$110,000 support, it can retest the record high. However, just above here is significant monthly resistance at $125,000, and I don’t see the catalyst for that to break right now.”

Still, if risk appetite takes another leg lower during August and Bitcoin were to see a sustained break of support, the correction could extend back toward the 200-day moving average at $99,355, he added. 

Sycamore’s prediction echoed a similar one from Arthur Hayes on Sunday, warning that macroeconomic pressures could drag Bitcoin back down to the $100,000 level.

August a bear month for Bitcoin

Since 2013, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have typically registered monthly declines in August, according to Glassnode.

In 2024, the asset shed 8.6% in a fall to just over $59,000. This was a small loss compared to 2023 and 2022, when it lost double digits in August, falling to $27,300 and $19,800, respectively. 

The average loss in August has been 11.4%, so if history rhymes and BTC falls by a similar amount this month, it could drop to around $105,000.

Still, the chart shows exceptions to this rule during bull market years.

Septembers have been just as bad 

The last time there was a gain in August was during the 2021 bull market when BTC added 13.8% to end the month at just over $47,000. There is still hope as 2025 is also a bull market year, following a four-year market cycle. 

Related: Bitcoin ends record month at $115K with BTC price set for ‘vertical’ August

The outlook is not good for September either, since eight out of the past 12 Septembers have seen losses.

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